Projections: Canes heavy favorites heading into playoffs
The Cartersville Purple Hurricanes are a clear favorite to once again make a deep playoff run and are favored to repeat as state champions in over 67 percent of all state playoff simulations according to the Maxwell Playoff Projections produced by Loren Maxwell of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
The Maxwell ratings utilize a metric to simulate the state playoffs one million times to determine projected odds. The ratings reflect each team’s strength and the simulations consider the impact of the season’s game results, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
The Canes are also a unanimously No. 1 ranked team in Class AAAA in each of the six major polls and ratings recognized in Georgia.
Of course everyone knows the games are not played on paper or in computer simulations, so the Canes will defend their state title and their current 25-game win streak with a clear target on their backs.
Cartersville (10-0) begins defense of their 2015 Class AAAA state title this Friday at Weinman Stadium when they host Chestatee (4-6). The Canes are a No. 1 seed from Region 5-AAAA. Chestatee is a No. 4 seed from Region 7-AAAA.
A victory by the Canes would result in a second round home game November 18 against the winner of the Northside-Columbus at Burke County first round pairing.
Meanwhile, another power rating formula — CalPreps.com — also has Cartersville as a huge favorite heading into the state playoffs.
CalPrep.com projections for Class AAAA first round: (83.5 percent winner accuracy in 2016)
Blessed Trinity 31, Chapel Hill 14 Burke County 35, Northside-Columbus 19
Cairo 42, Baldwin 0 Cartersville 62, Chestatee 0 Carver 42, Cross Creek 7 Oconee County 31, Northwest Whitfield 27 Mary Persons 35, North Clayton 0
Jefferson 40, Pickens 14 Ridgeland 34, St. Pius X 14
Sandy Creek 28, Marist 21 Spalding 28, Eastside 24 Stephens County 35, Heritage-Catoosa 17 Thomson 38, Americus-Sumter 13 Troup County 38, West Hall 19
West Laurens 28, Luella 7 Woodward Academy 35, Upson-Lee 7
According to the Maxwell playoff projections, Cartersville’s greatest challenge will come from Region 3-AAAA champion, Thomson, and Woodward Academy, winner of Region 4-AAAA. The ratings give Thomson a 20.1 percent chance of winning the state title and give Woodward Academy a 5.3 percent shot at the championship.
Cartersville and Woodward Academy are in the same quartile of the Class AAAA bracket and would meet Thanksgiving weekend if both teams win their first two playoff games. Since both teams are No. 1 seeds, a coin toss would determine the site of that game if it occurs. Thomson is on the opposite half of the bracket.
The state title favorites according to the Maxwell playoff projections: (% of state title wins in one million state playoff projections) Class A (private): Eagle’s Landing Christian, 50.7 percent Class A (public): Macon County, 54.2 percent Class AA: Benedictine, 48.2 percent Class AAA: Greater Atlanta Christian, 47.6 percent Class AAAA: Cartersville, 67.4 percent Class AAAAA: Stockbridge, 45.2 percent Class AAAAAA: Valdosta, 38.1 percent Class AAAAAAA: Grayson, 63.6 percent
Schedule for all classifications beginning Friday:
Class AAAAAAA
At Large Lassiter at R3 #1 McEachern
Class AAAAAA
Class AAAAA
Class AAAA
Class AAA
Class AA
Class A (public)
Marion Co. at Twiggs Co.
Manchester bye
Turner Co. at Terrell Co.
Macon Co. bye
Irwin Co. at Dooly Co.
Mount Zion bye
Bowdon at Miller Co.
Emanuel Co. Institute bye
Trion at Taylor Co.
Commerce bye
Randolph-Clay at Mitchell Co.
Clinch Co. bye
Washington-Wilkes at Lincoln Co.
McIntosh Co. Academy bye
Wheeler Co. at Greene Co.
Pelham bye
Class A (private)
Brookstone at Pinecrest Academy
Wesleyan bye
First Presbyterian at Aquinas
Eagle's Landing Christian bye
Holy Innocents' at Stratford Acad.
Tattnall Square bye
Hebron Christian at Sav. Christian
Calvary Day bye
Walker at Darlington
Landmark Christian bye
Mount Pisgah at Athens Christian
Prince Avenue Christian bye
Sav. Country Day at Athens Acad.
Mount Paran Christian bye
Mt. Vernon at George Walton
Fellowship Christian bye
